- 'Bama cleans up (10+ point win)
-McCain wins but just barely, and Huckabee is not over as quick as I originally thought (I'm guessing Huckabee and Obama will win South Carolina)
Anyone else?
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4 comments:
think it could be closer than that on the democrat side.
i think people are delusional if they think obama is going to "change" things
its kinda like all these liberals who think "justin trudeau" is destined to be our next prime minister and is what Canada "needs"
people seem desperate for leaders of the past like JFK, Trudeau, Reagan etc..
I understand it from the "hope" perspective people but what are people "hoping" Obama will actually do???
The election is not until November yet I'm already tired of hearing about it.
Said the other day and I'll say it again...put them in the Octagon
and let's settle things that way.
I think Obama will win NH and then the nomination. I think no matter what happens on the republican side, the establishment will rally around either romney or mccain (whoever the media decide to create a narrative around as "surging" or "viable" or an "agent of change" or whatever other bullshit buzz word they decide to use, and then huckabee and the establishment candidate will battle it out for a while. im not sure who will win at this point. but whoever it is, then will lose the general election.
I think Huckabee's appeal is deeper than some might first suggest. it always struck me as odd in both the american and canadian sonservative coalitions that blue-collor, rural, "values-voters" conservatives voted along with economic conservatives against their own economic interests (i.e. tax cuts for wealthy + cuts to social services). Huckabee finally gives that class of voters someone who represents all of their perceived interests. it will be interesting to see how strong and how numerous that faction of the coalition is.
That's a good point about Huckabee. A lot of people have been picking up on the impending fracture of the republican party recently. I've also thought it's odd that lower-income social conservatives tend to vote against their own economic interests, but I think it boils down to (1) them getting more fired up about social issues than economic ones, and (2) republican candidates lying/misleading them enough so they don't really get how much they're being screwed.
That said, Huckabee is still a pretty ridiculous excuse for a serious candidate. I think what's more important than his actual candidacy is the MOULD he's created for future republican candidates, and the realization that this is probably the best chance the GOP has to stay relevant with parts of the electorate. It's going to be really interesting seeing the democrats and republicans swap positions of fiscal policy, but it kinda makes more sense.
ps. Obama is delusional about his "change" theme, but i think an argument can be made for him regardless. Edwards, Obama and Clinton are all fairly similar on policy grounds.... and where they are different, those differences will inevitably be ground down when they begin the task of implementing legislative agendas and are forced to compromise to overcome the 60 vote necessity in the senate. i don't think any one of them will have an easier time passing legislation. despite all his talk of bringing people together, of course republicans have no desire to be brought together and will immediately begin calling him a terrorist and a scary muslim and socialist, and whatever other bile comes out of republicans generally. if he thinks otherwise, he is delusional. but even considering that, i don't see him having a disadvantage once in office. so if it can be assumed that any of the dems will perform roughly the same in implementing their roughly similar agendas, then it really does just come down to electability. and if more people buy into his "audacity of hope" shit than buy into clinton's experience rhetoric or edwards populist rhetoric, then why not encourage that kind of campaigning?
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