Iowa

So Obams and Huck take it. And both are bigger wins then expected. I can't think of anything original to say about this that isn't being said on CNN right now, but here's what I think will happen next:


Democrats: Obama has at least a 50% chance of winning New Hampshire. I'm gonna guess that the next poll will show him & Clinton at least as tied. If he wins it, even by a small margin, Hillary is in trouble. I think 'bams has some serious momentum going right now. And although this is a "sensitive" topic, I don't think one can understate the importance of his momentum. For some reason, I have a strong feeling that African Americans haven't been that fired up on Obama because they have a deep-rooted belief that a black man will never be President. But I think the symbolism of his win tonight is huge and it'll make a lot of people believe that a black man has a really, really good chance of being the next president. And if that's the case, just watch what happens. Although I have no facts to base this on, I really think that Obama is an easy bandwagon to jump on and once it starts it'll become a huge machine.


Republicans: Harder to say. Because of Romney's loss in Iowa I still think McCain will win New Hampshire, but he's not helped by the fact that Thompson looks like he's going to beat him tonight. McCain also looks like he just made a gaffe, saying that he'd be happy to stay in Iraq for 100 years. Oops! I'm can't figure out whether or not I'm cheering for McCain. On one hand, he's the only guy on the republican side who I would consider a fundamentally decent human being. But on the other hand, he's the only guy on the republican side who has a chance of winning in November. As for Huckabee, I would like to shake his hand personally for keeping the republicans in a messy state for the next little while.